NFL · Thursday, October 8, 2026
NFL Player Props Today: Week 5 Thursday Night Football (TB @ DAL)
Week 5 opens tonight with TB @ DAL. We ran every player prop on the game through the same analysis as the PropsIQ app and kept the 5 with the strongest case: each has cleared its line in most of the player's recent games, and each has something in the matchup or the role behind it, not just a streak.
Built with the PropsIQ app — the same data and analysis, for every prop on the board.
Bucky Irving Over 13.5 Rush Attempts
Bucky Irving has gone over 13.5 rush attempts in 8 of his last 10 games. He's on the road at the Dallas Cowboys tonight, priced at +100 to do it again.
Why it can hit
- Soft matchup for the position. Dallas Cowboys allow 24.3 rush attempts per game to RB — 9th most in the league, 10% above the 22.1 average.
- Priced in our favour. The model makes this 79% against a no-vig market price of 45% — a 34% edge at +100.
- Teammates are out. Baker Mayfield (QB) is out — that volume has to be absorbed by somebody.
The case against: negative script kills carries. A +9.5 underdog abandons the run when the game gets away.
Kenny Gainwell Over 3.5 Rush Attempts
Over his last 10 games, Kenny Gainwell has recorded 4+ carries 7 times. He's on the road at the Dallas Cowboys tonight, priced at -105 to do it again.
Why it can hit
- Soft matchup for the position. Dallas Cowboys allow 24.3 rush attempts per game to RB — 9th most in the league, 10% above the 22.1 average.
- Priced in our favour. The model makes this 57% against a no-vig market price of 47% — a 10% edge at -105.
- Teammates are out. Baker Mayfield (QB) is out — that volume has to be absorbed by somebody.
The case against: peripheral role. Only a 9% target share (3.0 per game) — he needs efficiency, not volume.
Dak Prescott Over 9.5 Rushing Yards
Over his last 10 games, Dak Prescott has topped 9.5 rushing yards 6 times. He's at home to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers tonight, priced at -105 to do it again.
Why it can hit
- Implied for a big day. The market has DAL at 29.0 points in a 48.5-point game — that's a lot of scoring to go around.
- Priced in our favour. The model makes this 63% against a no-vig market price of 48% — a 15% edge at -105.
- Season pace clears the line. Prescott averages 16.5 rushing yards per game against a 9.5 line.
The case against: committee backfield. Only 13% of the carries (3.0 per game) — the touches get split.
CeeDee Lamb Over 84.5 Receiving Yards
CeeDee Lamb has gone over 84.5 receiving yards in 6 of his last 10 games. He's at home to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers tonight, with the over at -115.
Why it can hit
- Implied for a big day. The market has DAL at 29.0 points in a 48.5-point game — that's a lot of scoring to go around.
- He's the focal point. A 31% target share (11.5 per game) — the volume is not in doubt.
- Priced in our favour. The model makes this 66% against a no-vig market price of 50% — a 16% edge at -115.
The case against: tough matchup for the position. Tampa Bay Buccaneers allow only 105.8 per game to WR, 2nd stingiest in the league.
KaVontae Turpin Over 3.5 Receiving Yards
Over his last 10 games, KaVontae Turpin has topped 3.5 receiving yards 7 times. He's at home to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers tonight, priced at +102 to do it again.
Why it can hit
- Implied for a big day. The market has DAL at 29.0 points in a 48.5-point game — that's a lot of scoring to go around.
- Priced in our favour. The model makes this 65% against a no-vig market price of 47% — a 18% edge at +102.
- Season pace clears the line. Turpin averages 4.3 receiving yards per game against a 3.5 line.
The case against: tough matchup for the position. Tampa Bay Buccaneers allow only 105.8 per game to WR, 2nd stingiest in the league.