NFL · Sunday, October 11, 2026
NFL Player Props Today: Week 5 Sunday Slate
There are 13 games on the Week 5 Sunday slate. We ran every posted player prop through the same analysis as the PropsIQ app and kept the 5 with the strongest case: each has cleared its line in most of the player's recent games, and each has something in the matchup or the role behind it, not just a streak.
Built with the PropsIQ app — the same data and analysis, for every prop on the board.
Sam LaPorta Over 4.5 Receptions
Sam LaPorta has recorded 5+ catches in 6 of his last 10 games. He's on the road at the Arizona Cardinals today, with the over at -143.
Why it can hit
- Soft matchup for the position. Arizona Cardinals allow 6.0 receptions per game to TE — 8th most in the league, 14% above the 5.3 average.
- Implied for a big day. The market has DET at 30.0 points in a 54.5-point game — that's a lot of scoring to go around.
- Season pace clears the line. LaPorta averages 5.5 receptions per game against a 4.5 line.
The case against: coin-flip recent sample. Cleared 4.5 in 3 of his last 5 — 8, 3, 6, 5, 0 (most recent first).
Xavier Hutchinson Over 15.5 Receiving Yards
Xavier Hutchinson has gone over 15.5 receiving yards in 8 of his last 10 games. He's on the road at the Tennessee Titans today, with the over at -110.
Why it can hit
- Soft matchup for the position. Tennessee Titans allow 167.0 receiving yards per game to WR — 9th most in the league, 10% above the 152.2 average.
- Priced in our favour. The model makes this 85% against a no-vig market price of 50% — a 35% edge at -110.
- Season pace clears the line. Hutchinson averages 41.5 receiving yards per game against a 15.5 line.
The case against: slow opponent. Tennessee Titans run only 53.8 plays per game, which shortens the game for both sides.
RJ Harvey Over 3.5 Receptions
RJ Harvey has gone over 3.5 receptions in 6 of his last 10 games. He's on the road at the Los Angeles Chargers today, priced at -154 to do it again.
Why it can hit
- Priced in our favour. The model makes this 69% against a no-vig market price of 57% — a 12% edge at -154.
- Season pace clears the line. Harvey averages 6.7 receptions per game against a 3.5 line.
- Teammates are out. Jonah Coleman (RB) and Pat Bryant (WR) are out — that volume has to be absorbed by somebody.
The case against: history against lac. Only 2.0 per game across 2 meetings.
Joe Burrow Over 1.5 Passing TDs
Over his last 10 games, Joe Burrow has recorded 2+ touchdown passes 7 times. He's on the road at the Miami Dolphins today, priced at -176 to do it again.
Why it can hit
- Soft matchup for the position. Miami Dolphins allow 1.8 passing tds per game to QB — 8th most in the league, 12% above the 1.6 average.
- Season pace clears the line. Burrow averages 1.8 passing tds per game against a 1.5 line.
- Strong on the road. 80% in his last 15 on the road games.
The case against: coin-flip recent sample. Cleared 1.5 in 3 of his last 5 — 1, 3, 2, 1, 3 (most recent first).
Jonathan Taylor Anytime TD
Jonathan Taylor has scored a touchdown in 6 of his last 10 games. He's on the road at the Pittsburgh Steelers today, with the price at -165.
Why it can hit
- Soft matchup for the position. Pittsburgh Steelers allow 1.0 anytime td per game to RB — 8th most in the league, 15% above the 0.9 average.
- Season pace clears the line. Taylor averages 1.5 anytime td per game against a 0.5 line.
- Teammates are out. Will Mallory (TE), Ashton Dulin (WR), and Darius Slayton (WR) are out — that volume has to be absorbed by somebody.
The case against: peripheral role. Only a 12% target share (3.8 per game) — he needs efficiency, not volume.