NFL · Monday, October 12, 2026
NFL Player Props Today: Week 5 Monday Night Football (BUF @ LAR)
Week 5 closes with BUF @ LAR on Monday Night Football. These are the 5 player props our data likes most tonight: each has cleared its line in most of the player's recent games, and each has something in the matchup or the role behind it, not just a streak.
Built with the PropsIQ app — the same data and analysis, for every prop on the board.
Kyren Williams Anytime TD
Kyren Williams has scored a touchdown in 6 of his last 10 games. He's at home to the Buffalo Bills tonight, with the price at -160.
Why it can hit
- Soft matchup for the position. Buffalo Bills allow 1.5 anytime td per game to RB — 3rd most in the league, 74% above the 0.9 average.
- Implied for a big day. The market has LAR at 29.0 points in a 54.5-point game — that's a lot of scoring to go around.
- Season pace clears the line. Williams averages 1.0 anytime td per game against a 0.5 line.
The case against: coin-flip recent sample. Cleared 0.5 in 3 of his last 5 — 2, 0, 1, 1, 0 (most recent first).
Blake Corum Over 7.5 Rush Attempts
Over his last 10 games, Blake Corum has recorded 8+ carries 6 times. He's at home to the Buffalo Bills tonight, with the over at +107.
Why it can hit
- Soft matchup for the position. Buffalo Bills allow 24.3 rush attempts per game to RB — 10th most in the league, 10% above the 22.0 average.
- Implied for a big day. The market has LAR at 29.0 points in a 54.5-point game — that's a lot of scoring to go around.
- Priced in our favour. The model makes this 57% against a no-vig market price of 46% — a 11% edge at +107.
The case against: peripheral role. Only a 5% target share (2.3 per game) — he needs efficiency, not volume.
Konata Mumpfield Over 0.5 Receptions
Konata Mumpfield has gone over 0.5 receptions in 6 of his last 10 games. He's at home to the Buffalo Bills tonight, with the over at -159.
Why it can hit
- Soft matchup for the position. Buffalo Bills allow 13.3 receptions per game to WR — 8th most in the league, 16% above the 11.4 average.
- Implied for a big day. The market has LAR at 29.0 points in a 54.5-point game — that's a lot of scoring to go around.
- Season pace clears the line. Mumpfield averages 1.5 receptions per game against a 0.5 line.
The case against: peripheral role. Only a 8% target share (3.5 per game) — he needs efficiency, not volume.
Ty Johnson Over 1.5 Receptions
Ty Johnson has gone over 1.5 receptions in 9 of his last 10 games. He's on the road at the Los Angeles Rams tonight, with the over at -145.
Why it can hit
- Soft matchup for the position. Los Angeles Rams allow 4.8 receptions per game to RB — 8th most in the league, 10% above the 4.3 average.
- Priced in our favour. The model makes this 86% against a no-vig market price of 55% — a 31% edge at -145.
- Season pace clears the line. Johnson averages 3.0 receptions per game against a 1.5 line.
The case against: peripheral role. Only a 11% target share (3.0 per game) — he needs efficiency, not volume.
Davis Allen Over 6.5 Receiving Yards
Over his last 10 games, Davis Allen has topped 6.5 receiving yards 6 times. He's at home to the Buffalo Bills tonight, priced at -110 to do it again.
Why it can hit
- Implied for a big day. The market has LAR at 29.0 points in a 54.5-point game — that's a lot of scoring to go around.
- Priced in our favour. The model makes this 65% against a no-vig market price of 49% — a 16% edge at -110.
- Season pace clears the line. Allen averages 9.8 receiving yards per game against a 6.5 line.
The case against: peripheral role. Only a 4% target share (1.8 per game) — he needs efficiency, not volume.