NFL · Thursday, October 15, 2026
NFL Player Props Today: Week 6 Thursday Night Football (SEA @ DEN)
Week 6 opens tonight with SEA @ DEN. We ran every player prop on the game through the same analysis as the PropsIQ app and kept the 5 with the strongest case: each has cleared its line in most of the player's recent games, and each has something in the matchup or the role behind it, not just a streak.
Built with the PropsIQ app — the same data and analysis, for every prop on the board.
RJ Harvey Over 3.5 Receptions
RJ Harvey has recorded 4+ catches in 7 of his last 10 games. He's at home to the Seattle Seahawks tonight, priced at -108 to do it again.
Why it can hit
- Soft matchup for the position. Seattle Seahawks allow 5.2 receptions per game to RB — 5th most in the league, 20% above the 4.3 average.
- Priced in our favour. The model makes this 69% against a no-vig market price of 49% — a 20% edge at -108.
- Season pace clears the line. Harvey averages 5.0 receptions per game against a 3.5 line.
The case against: his zone is their strength. 34% of his production comes through l guard, which is where SEA is at their best.
Sam Darnold Over 4.5 Rushing Yards
Over his last 10 games, Sam Darnold has topped 4.5 rushing yards 7 times. He's on the road at the Denver Broncos tonight, priced at -109 to do it again.
Why it can hit
- Soft matchup for the position. Denver Broncos allow 25.0 rushing yards per game to QB — 6th most in the league, 40% above the 17.9 average.
- Priced in our favour. The model makes this 68% against a no-vig market price of 49% — a 19% edge at -109.
- This defense is slipping. 32.0 per game allowed over their last three, up on their 25.0 season number.
The case against: committee backfield. Only 6% of the carries (1.7 per game) — the touches get split.
Cooper Kupp Over 22.5 Receiving Yards
Cooper Kupp has gone over 22.5 receiving yards in 6 of his last 10 games. He's on the road at the Denver Broncos tonight, with the over at -111.
Why it can hit
- Priced in our favour. The model makes this 58% against a no-vig market price of 49% — a 9% edge at -111.
- Season pace clears the line. Kupp averages 25.8 receiving yards per game against a 22.5 line.
- Teammates are out. Zach Charbonnet (RB) is out — that volume has to be absorbed by somebody.
The case against: tough matchup for the position. Denver Broncos allow only 117.8 per game to WR, 5th stingiest in the league.
Tory Horton Over 0.5 Receptions
Tory Horton has gone over 0.5 receptions in 6 of his last 10 games. He's on the road at the Denver Broncos tonight, priced at -115 to do it again.
Why it can hit
- Priced in our favour. The model makes this 62% against a no-vig market price of 50% — a 12% edge at -115.
- Season pace clears the line. Horton averages 1.3 receptions per game against a 0.5 line.
- Teammates are out. Zach Charbonnet (RB) is out — that volume has to be absorbed by somebody.
The case against: tough matchup for the position. Denver Broncos allow only 8.4 per game to WR, 2nd stingiest in the league.
Bo Nix Over 21.5 Completions
Over his last 10 games, Bo Nix has recorded 22+ completions 6 times. He's at home to the Seattle Seahawks tonight, with the over at +100.
Why it can hit
- Priced in our favour. The model makes this 54% against a no-vig market price of 47% — a 7% edge at +100.
- Teammates are out. Pat Bryant (WR) is out — that volume has to be absorbed by somebody.
- The defense is short-handed. Chazz Surratt (LB), Drake Thomas (LB), and Zach Charbonnet (RB) are out for Seattle Seahawks.
The case against: tough matchup for the position. Seattle Seahawks allow only 19.4 per game to QB, 7th stingiest in the league.