NFL · Thursday, October 22, 2026
NFL Player Props Today: Week 7 Thursday Night Football (NE @ CHI)
Week 7 opens tonight with NE @ CHI. We ran every player prop on the game through the same analysis as the PropsIQ app and kept the 5 with the strongest case: each has cleared its line in most of the player's recent games, and each has something in the matchup or the role behind it, not just a streak.
Built with the PropsIQ app — the same data and analysis, for every prop on the board.
Caleb Williams Over 246.5 Passing Yards
Caleb Williams has gone over 246.5 passing yards in 6 of his last 10 games. He's at home to the New England Patriots tonight, with the over at -115.
Why it can hit
- Implied for a big day. The market has CHI at 26.8 points in a 50.5-point game — that's a lot of scoring to go around.
- Priced in our favour. The model makes this 60% against a no-vig market price of 50% — a 10% edge at -115.
- This defense is slipping. 265.3 per game allowed over their last three, up on their 227.5 season number.
The case against: weak at home. 35% in his last 20 at home games.
Kalif Raymond Over 2.5 Receptions
Kalif Raymond has gone over 2.5 receptions in 6 of his last 10 games. He's at home to the New England Patriots tonight, with the over at -105.
Why it can hit
- Implied for a big day. The market has CHI at 26.8 points in a 50.5-point game — that's a lot of scoring to go around.
- Priced in our favour. The model makes this 58% against a no-vig market price of 48% — a 10% edge at -105.
- Season pace clears the line. At 4.3 per game, he clears 2.5 about 81% of the time.
The case against: coin-flip recent sample. Cleared 2.5 in 3 of his last 5 — 2, 3, 2, 6, 5 (most recent first).
Colston Loveland Over 44.5 Receiving Yards
Colston Loveland has gone over 44.5 receiving yards in 6 of his last 10 games. He's at home to the New England Patriots tonight, with the over at -115.
Why it can hit
- Implied for a big day. The market has CHI at 26.8 points in a 50.5-point game — that's a lot of scoring to go around.
- This defense is slipping. 65.0 per game allowed over their last three, up on their 46.5 season number.
- Rising usage. 47.0 per game over his last three against a 29.2 season average.
The case against: season pace is short of the line. Loveland averages 29.2 per game — the line is asking for above his own norm.
D'Andre Swift Over 14.5 Rush Attempts
D'Andre Swift has gone over 14.5 rush attempts in 6 of his last 10 games. He's at home to the New England Patriots tonight, with the over at -110.
Why it can hit
- Implied for a big day. The market has CHI at 26.8 points in a 50.5-point game — that's a lot of scoring to go around.
- Priced in our favour. The model makes this 65% against a no-vig market price of 49% — a 16% edge at -110.
- Teammates are out. Kyle Monangai (RB) is out — more carries to go around.
The case against: tough matchup for the position. New England Patriots allow only 19.8 per game to RB, 9th stingiest in the league.
TreVeyon Henderson Over 24.5 Rushing Yards
TreVeyon Henderson has gone over 24.5 rushing yards in 6 of his last 10 games. He's on the road at the Chicago Bears tonight, with the over at +100.
Why it can hit
- Priced in our favour. The model makes this 62% against a no-vig market price of 47% — a 15% edge at +100.
- Season pace clears the line. Henderson averages 38.8 rushing yards per game against a 24.5 line.
- Median above the line. A 31.0 median across 5 games.
The case against: tough matchup for the position. Chicago Bears allow only 78.5 per game to RB, 9th stingiest in the league.