NFL · Thursday, October 29, 2026
NFL Player Props Today: Week 8 Thursday Night Football (CAR @ GB)
Week 8 opens tonight with CAR @ GB. We ran every player prop on the game through the same analysis as the PropsIQ app and kept the 5 with the strongest case: each has cleared its line in most of the player's recent games, and each has something in the matchup or the role behind it, not just a streak.
Built with the PropsIQ app — the same data and analysis, for every prop on the board.
MarShawn Lloyd Over 5.5 Rush Attempts
MarShawn Lloyd has recorded 6+ carries in 7 of his last 8 games. He's at home to the Carolina Panthers tonight, with the over at +110.
Why it can hit
- Soft matchup for the position. Carolina Panthers allow 24.3 rush attempts per game to RB — 7th most in the league, 10% above the 22.1 average.
- Priced in our favour. The model makes this 87% against a no-vig market price of 44% — a 43% edge at +110.
- Season pace clears the line. Lloyd averages 7.7 rush attempts per game against a 5.5 line.
The case against: market moving to the under. The over has drifted from -104 to +110 since it opened — money is on the other side.
Tetairoa McMillan Over 72.5 Receiving Yards
Over his last 10 games, Tetairoa McMillan has topped 72.5 receiving yards 7 times. He's on the road at the Green Bay Packers tonight, priced at -113 to do it again.
Why it can hit
- He's the focal point. A 26% target share (9.0 per game) — the volume is not in doubt.
- Priced in our favour. The model makes this 65% against a no-vig market price of 50% — a 15% edge at -113.
- Season pace clears the line. McMillan averages 85.2 receiving yards per game against a 72.5 line.
The case against: coin-flip recent sample. Cleared 72.5 in 3 of his last 5 — 40, 86, 192, 17, 101 (most recent first).
Josh Jacobs Over 82.5 Rush + Rec Yards
Josh Jacobs has gone over 82.5 rush + rec yards in 6 of his last 10 games. He's at home to the Carolina Panthers tonight, with the over at -114.
Why it can hit
- Soft matchup for the position. Carolina Panthers allow 155.7 rush + rec yards per game to RB — 3rd most in the league, 27% above the 122.8 average.
- Priced in our favour. The model makes this 70% against a no-vig market price of 50% — a 20% edge at -114.
- Strong at home. 75% in his last 16 at home games.
The case against: coin-flip recent sample. Cleared 82.5 in 2 of his last 5 — 91, 58, 3, 48, 92 (most recent first).
John Metchie III Over 1.5 Receptions
Over his last 10 games, John Metchie III has recorded 2+ catches 8 times. He's on the road at the Green Bay Packers tonight, priced at -135 to do it again.
Why it can hit
- Soft matchup for the position. Green Bay Packers allow 14.1 receptions per game to WR — 2nd most in the league, 24% above the 11.4 average.
- Priced in our favour. The model makes this 76% against a no-vig market price of 53% — a 23% edge at -135.
- Rising usage. 2.3 per game over his last three against a 1.8 season average.
The case against: peripheral role. Only a 12% target share (4.3 per game) — he needs efficiency, not volume.
Bryce Young Over 35.5 Pass Attempts
Over his last 10 games, Bryce Young has recorded 36+ pass attempts 6 times. He's on the road at the Green Bay Packers tonight, priced at -115 to do it again.
Why it can hit
- Priced in our favour. The model makes this 62% against a no-vig market price of 50% — a 12% edge at -115.
- This defense is slipping. 42.0 per game allowed over their last three, up on their 34.7 season number.
- Trending up. 80% over the last 5 against 60% over the last 10.
The case against: weak on the road. 32% in his last 19 on the road games.