NFL · Thursday, November 5, 2026
NFL Player Props Today: Week 9 Thursday Night Football (JAX @ BAL)
Week 9 opens tonight with JAX @ BAL. We ran every player prop on the game through the same analysis as the PropsIQ app and kept the 5 with the strongest case: each has cleared its line in most of the player's recent games, and each has something in the matchup or the role behind it, not just a streak.
Built with the PropsIQ app — the same data and analysis, for every prop on the board.
Brenton Strange Over 33.5 Receiving Yards
Over his last 10 games, Brenton Strange has topped 33.5 receiving yards 6 times. He's on the road at the Baltimore Ravens tonight, priced at -114 to do it again.
Why it can hit
- Priced in our favour. The model makes this 58% against a no-vig market price of 50% — a 8% edge at -113.
- Season pace clears the line. Strange averages 47.7 receiving yards per game against a 35.5 line.
- This defense is slipping. 57.3 per game allowed over their last three, up on their 46.5 season number.
Trevor Lawrence Over 1.5 Passing TDs
Trevor Lawrence has gone over 1.5 passing tds in 7 of his last 10 games. He's at home to the Indianapolis Colts today, with the over at -137.
Why it can hit
- Soft matchup for the position. Indianapolis Colts allow 1.6 passing tds per game to QB — 9th most in the league, 2% above the 1.5 average.
- Implied for a big day. The market has JAX at 28.3 points in a 46.5-point game — that's a lot of scoring to go around.
- Season pace clears the line. At 2.3 per game, he clears 1.5 about 68% of the time.
The case against: coin-flip recent sample. Cleared 1.5 in 3 of his last 5 — 4, 2, 1, 3, 0 (most recent first).
Zay Flowers Over 45.5 Receiving Yards
Zay Flowers has gone over 45.5 receiving yards in 8 of his last 10 games. He's at home to the Jacksonville Jaguars tonight, with the over at -114.
Why it can hit
- Soft matchup for the position. Jacksonville Jaguars allow 195.7 receiving yards per game to WR — 2nd most in the league, 33% above the 146.7 average.
- He's the focal point. A 29% target share (8.3 per game) — the volume is not in doubt.
- Priced in our favour. The model makes this 82% against a no-vig market price of 50% — a 32% edge at -113.
The case against: implied for a quiet day. The market has BAL at just 14.8 points in a 39.5-point game.
Derrick Henry Over 75.5 Rushing Yards
Over his last 10 games, Derrick Henry has topped 75.5 rushing yards 7 times. He's at home to the Jacksonville Jaguars tonight, priced at -114 to do it again.
Why it can hit
- He's the back. A 68% share of the carries (19.8 per game).
- Priced in our favour. The model makes this 69% against a no-vig market price of 49% — a 20% edge at -110.
- Season pace clears the line. Henry averages 79.0 rushing yards per game against a 67.5 line.
The case against: tough matchup for the position. Jacksonville Jaguars allow only 57.7 per game to RB, 1st stingiest in the league.
Mark Andrews Over 2.5 Receptions
Over his last 10 games, Mark Andrews has recorded 3+ catches 8 times. He's at home to the Jacksonville Jaguars tonight, with the over at -158.
Why it can hit
- Priced in our favour. The model makes this 79% against a no-vig market price of 53% — a 26% edge at -130.
- Season pace clears the line. At 3.6 per game, he clears 2.5 about 70% of the time.
- This defense is slipping. 5.7 per game allowed over their last three, up on their 4.1 season number.
The case against: tough matchup for the position. Jacksonville Jaguars allow only 4.1 per game to TE, 4th stingiest in the league.