NHL · Sunday, October 11, 2026
NHL Player Props Today: Sunday, October 11
Sunday's NHL slate has 3 games. These are the 5 player props our data likes most tonight: each has cleared its line in most of the player's recent games, and each has something in the matchup or the role behind it, not just a streak.
Built with the PropsIQ app — the same data and analysis, for every prop on the board.
Will Cuylle Over 1.5 Shots on Goal
Will Cuylle has gone over 1.5 shots on goal in 6 of his last 10 games. He's at home to VAN tonight, with the over at -150.
Why it can hit
- Priced in our favour. The model makes this 66% against a no-vig market price of 56% — a 10% edge at -150.
- Season pace clears the line. Cuylle averages 2.5 shots on goal per game against a 1.5 line.
- Median above the line. A 2.5 median across 6 games.
Ryan Leonard Over 1.5 Shots on Goal
Ryan Leonard has gone over 1.5 shots on goal in 10 of his last 10 games. He's at home to the Seattle Kraken tonight, priced at -160 to do it again.
Why it can hit
- Soft matchup for the position. Seattle Kraken allow 21.8 shots on goal per game to forwards — 7th most in the league, 10% above the 19.8 average.
- Implied for a big night. The market has WSH at 4.00 goals in a 6.5-goal game.
- Priced in our favour. The model makes this 97% against a no-vig market price of 56% — a 41% edge at -160.
The case against: market moving to the under. The over has drifted from -195 to -160 since it opened — money is on the other side.
Jackson Blake Over 0.5 Points
Jackson Blake has gone over 0.5 points in 8 of his last 10 games. He's on the road at the Philadelphia Flyers tonight, with the over at -110.
Why it can hit
- Soft matchup for the position. Philadelphia Flyers allow 8.0 points per game to forwards — 6th most in the league, 31% above the 6.1 average.
- Implied for a big night. The market has CAR at 3.50 goals in a 5.5-goal game.
- Priced in our favour. The model makes this 78% against a no-vig market price of 49% — a 29% edge at -110.
The case against: boom-or-bust profile. His game-to-game spread is wide (75% of his median), so the hit rate is a much shakier guide than it looks.
Nikolaj Ehlers Over 0.5 Points
Nikolaj Ehlers has recorded a point in 6 of his last 10 games. He's on the road at the Philadelphia Flyers tonight, priced at -130 to do it again.
Why it can hit
- Soft matchup for the position. Philadelphia Flyers allow 8.0 points per game to forwards — 6th most in the league, 31% above the 6.1 average.
- Implied for a big night. The market has CAR at 3.50 goals in a 5.5-goal game.
- Tired opponent. Philadelphia Flyers played last night. Second-night sides give up more shots, and they usually start their backup.
The case against: coin-flip recent sample. Cleared 0.5 in 3 of his last 5 — 1, 0, 1, 1, 0 (most recent first).
Adam Fox Over 0.5 Assists
Adam Fox has recorded an assist in 6 of his last 10 games. He's at home to VAN tonight, with the over at -145.
Why it can hit
- Priced in our favour. The model makes this 64% against a no-vig market price of 55% — a 9% edge at -145.
- Season pace clears the line. Fox averages 0.83 assists per game against a 0.5 line.
- Big minutes. 21:30 of ice time per game — the volume is there.
The case against: boom-or-bust profile. His game-to-game spread is wide (75% of his median), so the hit rate is a much shakier guide than it looks.