NHL · Saturday, October 17, 2026
NHL Player Props Today: Saturday, October 17
Saturday's NHL slate has 14 games. These are the 5 player props our data likes most tonight: each has cleared its line in most of the player's recent games, and each has something in the matchup or the role behind it, not just a streak.
Built with the PropsIQ app — the same data and analysis, for every prop on the board.
Mikhail Sergachev Over 1.5 Shots on Goal
Over his last 10 games, Mikhail Sergachev has recorded 2+ shots on goal 9 times. He's at home to the Edmonton Oilers tonight, priced at -140 to do it again.
Why it can hit
- Soft matchup for the position. Edmonton Oilers allow 8.0 shots on goal per game to defensemen — 6th most in the league, 12% above the 7.1 average.
- Implied for a big night. The market has UTA at 4.00 goals in a 6.5-goal game.
- Priced in our favour. The model makes this 83% against a no-vig market price of 55% — a 28% edge at -140.
Jack Roslovic Over 1.5 Shots on Goal
Jack Roslovic has gone over 1.5 shots on goal in 9 of his last 10 games. He's at home to NYI tonight, with the over at -165.
Why it can hit
- His floor clears the line. His worst game in 8 was 2.0, still above 1.5.
- Priced in our favour. The model makes this 89% against a no-vig market price of 58% — a 31% edge at -165.
- Season pace clears the line. At 3.1 per game, he clears 1.5 about 82% of the time.
The case against: market moving to the under. The over has drifted from -195 to -165 since it opened — money is on the other side.
Tim Stützle Over 0.5 Points
Tim Stützle has gone over 0.5 points in 7 of his last 10 games. He's on the road at the Philadelphia Flyers tonight, priced at -175 to do it again.
Why it can hit
- Soft matchup for the position. Philadelphia Flyers allow 7.1 points per game to forwards — 10th most in the league, 12% above the 6.4 average.
- Implied for a big night. The market has OTT at 3.50 goals in a 5.5-goal game.
- Priced in our favour. The model makes this 69% against a no-vig market price of 59% — a 10% edge at -175.
The case against: coin-flip recent sample. Cleared 0.5 in 3 of his last 5 — 0, 1, 2, 2, 0 (most recent first).
Kyle Connor Over 0.5 Points
Kyle Connor has gone over 0.5 points in 8 of his last 10 games. He's at home to CAR today, priced at -180 to do it again.
Why it can hit
- Priced in our favour. The model makes this 81% against a no-vig market price of 60% — a 21% edge at -180.
- Season pace clears the line. At 1.6 per game, he clears 0.5 about 79% of the time.
- In on most of the offense. He has a point on 52% of his team's goals.
The case against: market moving to the under. The over has drifted from -210 to -180 since it opened — money is on the other side.
Evan Bouchard Over 0.5 Assists
Evan Bouchard has recorded an assist in 8 of his last 10 games. He's on the road at UTA tonight, priced at -145 to do it again.
Why it can hit
- Priced in our favour. The model makes this 80% against a no-vig market price of 55% — a 25% edge at -145.
- Season pace clears the line. At 1.3 per game, he clears 0.5 about 72% of the time.
- In on most of the offense. He has a point on 48% of his team's goals.
The case against: boom-or-bust profile. His game-to-game spread is wide (76% of his median), so the hit rate is a much shakier guide than it looks.