NHL · Monday, October 19, 2026
NHL Player Props Today: Monday, October 19
Monday's NHL slate has 4 games. These are the 5 player props our data likes most tonight: each has cleared its line in most of the player's recent games, and each has something in the matchup or the role behind it, not just a streak.
Built with the PropsIQ app — the same data and analysis, for every prop on the board.
Alex Killorn Over 1.5 Shots on Goal
Alex Killorn has recorded 2+ shots on goal in 7 of his last 10 games. He's on the road at NYR tonight, priced at -152 to do it again.
Why it can hit
- Priced in our favour. The model makes this 71% against a no-vig market price of 57% — a 14% edge at -152.
- Season pace clears the line. At 2.0 per game, he clears 1.5 about 59% of the time.
- Trending up. 3.0 per game over his last three against a 2.0 season average.
Kirill Marchenko Over 0.5 Points
Over his last 10 games, Kirill Marchenko has recorded a point 7 times. He's at home to the San Jose Sharks tonight, with the over at -165.
Why it can hit
- Soft matchup for the position. San Jose Sharks allow 7.0 points per game to forwards — 9th most in the league, 12% above the 6.3 average.
- Implied for a big night. The market has TOR at 4.00 goals in a 6.5-goal game.
- Priced in our favour. The model makes this 70% against a no-vig market price of 58% — a 12% edge at -165.
The case against: boom-or-bust profile. His game-to-game spread is wide (87% of his median), so the hit rate is a much shakier guide than it looks.
Nick Schmaltz Over 0.5 Points
Over his last 10 games, Nick Schmaltz has recorded a point 7 times. He's at home to the Pittsburgh Penguins tonight, with the over at -190.
Why it can hit
- Soft matchup for the position. Pittsburgh Penguins allow 7.2 points per game to forwards — 8th most in the league, 15% above the 6.3 average.
- Implied for a big night. The market has UTA at 4.00 goals in a 6.5-goal game.
- Priced in our favour. The model makes this 70% against a no-vig market price of 62% — a 8% edge at -190.
The case against: coin-flip recent sample. Cleared 0.5 in 3 of his last 5 — 0, 2, 1, 1, 0 (most recent first).
Nathan MacKinnon Over 3.5 Shots on Goal
Nathan MacKinnon has gone over 3.5 shots on goal in 6 of his last 10 games. He's on the road at the Philadelphia Flyers tonight, priced at -128 to do it again.
Why it can hit
- Soft matchup for the position. Philadelphia Flyers allow 23.6 shots on goal per game to forwards — 2nd most in the league, 20% above the 19.7 average.
- Implied for a big night. The market has COL at 4.00 goals in a 6.5-goal game.
- He's the shooter. 15% of his team's shots (4.8 per game).
The case against: coin-flip recent sample. Cleared 3.5 in 3 of his last 5 — 9, 4, 2, 8, 2 (most recent first).
Adam Fox Over 0.5 Assists
Over his last 10 games, Adam Fox has recorded an assist 7 times. He's at home to the Anaheim Ducks tonight, with the over at -135.
Why it can hit
- Implied for a big night. The market has NYR at 4.00 goals in a 6.5-goal game.
- Priced in our favour. The model makes this 70% against a no-vig market price of 53% — a 17% edge at -135.
- A beatable goalie. Lukas Dostal is the likely starter at a .885 save percentage over 67 starts.
The case against: tough matchup for the position. Anaheim Ducks allow only 1.0 per game to defensemen, 6th stingiest in the league.