NHL · Saturday, October 24, 2026
NHL Player Props Today: Saturday, October 24
Saturday's NHL slate has 12 games. These are the 5 player props our data likes most tonight: each has cleared its line in most of the player's recent games, and each has something in the matchup or the role behind it, not just a streak.
Built with the PropsIQ app — the same data and analysis, for every prop on the board.
Evan Bouchard Over 0.5 Assists
Over his last 10 games, Evan Bouchard has recorded an assist 9 times. He's at home to the Toronto Maple Leafs tonight, priced at -180 to do it again.
Why it can hit
- Soft matchup for the position. Toronto Maple Leafs allow 1.8 assists per game to defensemen — 9th most in the league, 11% above the 1.6 average.
- Implied for a big night. The market has EDM at 4.00 goals in a 6.5-goal game.
- Priced in our favour. The model makes this 87% against a no-vig market price of 60% — a 27% edge at -180.
The case against: market moving to the under. The over has drifted from -210 to -180 since it opened — money is on the other side.
Alex DeBrincat Over 0.5 Points
Alex DeBrincat has recorded a point in 7 of his last 10 games. He's on the road at CGY tonight, with the over at -185.
Why it can hit
- Priced in our favour. The model makes this 70% against a no-vig market price of 60% — a 10% edge at -185.
- Season pace clears the line. At 1.2 per game, he clears 0.5 about 70% of the time.
- In on most of the offense. He has a point on 44% of his team's goals.
The case against: boom-or-bust profile. His game-to-game spread is wide (114% of his median), so the hit rate is a much shakier guide than it looks.
Tage Thompson Over 0.5 Points
Tage Thompson has gone over 0.5 points in 6 of his last 10 games. He's on the road at the Washington Capitals tonight, with the over at -175.
Why it can hit
- Soft matchup for the position. Washington Capitals allow 6.9 points per game to forwards — 10th most in the league, 9% above the 6.3 average.
- A beatable goalie. Charlie Lindgren is the likely starter at a .879 save percentage over 20 starts.
- This defense is slipping. 8.6 per game over their last five, up on their 6.9 season number.
The case against: implied for a quiet night. The market has BUF at just 2.50 goals in a 6.5-goal game.
Brandon Hagel Over 2.5 Shots on Goal
Brandon Hagel has gone over 2.5 shots on goal in 8 of his last 10 games. He's on the road at UTA tonight, priced at -155 to do it again.
Why it can hit
- He's the shooter. 14% of his team's shots (4.3 per game).
- Priced in our favour. The model makes this 80% against a no-vig market price of 55% — a 25% edge at -155.
- Season pace clears the line. At 4.3 per game, he clears 2.5 about 80% of the time.
The case against: coin-flip recent sample. Cleared 2.5 in 3 of his last 5 — 2, 3, 5, 6, 1 (most recent first).
Jonathan Marchessault Over 1.5 Shots on Goal
Jonathan Marchessault has gone over 1.5 shots on goal in 7 of his last 10 games. He's on the road at PIT tonight, with the over at -175.
Why it can hit
- Priced in our favour. The model makes this 70% against a no-vig market price of 58% — a 12% edge at -175.
- Season pace clears the line. At 2.1 per game, he clears 1.5 about 62% of the time.
- Trending up. 3.0 per game over his last three against a 2.1 season average.
The case against: boom-or-bust profile. His game-to-game spread is wide (68% of his median), so the hit rate is a much shakier guide than it looks.